第一篇 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估理論
第1 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估概述·························································.002
1.1 戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃視野下的體系貢獻(xiàn)率問(wèn)題背景···································.002
1.1.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率：使命組織發(fā)展的核心價(jià)值觀························.002
1.1.2 面向戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃研究的體系貢獻(xiàn)率問(wèn)題分析························.004
1.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的概念內(nèi)涵················································.008
1.2.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 問(wèn)題域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技術(shù)域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 總體研究框架····························································.014
1.4 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估的研究進(jìn)展··················································.015
1.4.1 國(guó)內(nèi)研究進(jìn)展綜述······················································.015
1.4.2 國(guó)外研究進(jìn)展綜述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究進(jìn)展小結(jié)····························································.026
1.4.4 重點(diǎn)研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)理論··············································.029
2.1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)與復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)···························································.029
2.1.1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)概念················································.029
2.1.2 復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)理論······················································.029
2.1.3 復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論····························································.030
2.1.4 超網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論·······························································.030
2.2 體系工程與能力機(jī)理···························································.031
2.2.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的能力基準(zhǔn)：基于能力的體系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的作用原理：體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)任務(wù)鏈路動(dòng)量原理·········.035
2.2.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的成因機(jī)理：體系協(xié)同、適應(yīng)與層次涌現(xiàn)特性···.037
2.2.4 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的能力培育：作戰(zhàn)體系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 體系能力與效能及特性評(píng)估··················································.040
2.3.1 體系能力評(píng)估····························································.041
2.3.2 體系效能評(píng)估····························································.048
2.3.3 體系特性評(píng)估····························································.050
2.4 體系仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)與認(rèn)知演化計(jì)算···············································.052
2.4.1 體系仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)····························································.052
2.4.2 認(rèn)知演化計(jì)算····························································.058
2.4.3 體系動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真·························································.064
第3 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估的基準(zhǔn)流程··············································.065
3.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作戰(zhàn)方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 體系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)活動(dòng)分析······················································.069
3.1.5 裝備功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 裝備評(píng)估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方案設(shè)計(jì)·····················································.072
3.2.1 明確評(píng)估問(wèn)題對(duì)象······················································.072
3.2.2 設(shè)置軍事作戰(zhàn)想定······················································.075
3.2.3 構(gòu)建評(píng)估指標(biāo)框架······················································.076
3.2.4 擬制總體評(píng)估方案······················································.077
3.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率全局能力評(píng)估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力評(píng)估模型構(gòu)建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源數(shù)據(jù)獲取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力評(píng)估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力貢獻(xiàn)結(jié)果計(jì)算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力評(píng)估結(jié)果分析······················································.082
3.4 體系貢獻(xiàn)率重點(diǎn)效能評(píng)估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能評(píng)估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能仿真想定設(shè)置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)······················································.085
3.4.4 仿真模型開(kāi)發(fā)集成······················································.085
3.4.5 仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)運(yùn)行表現(xiàn)······················································.086
3.4.6 效能貢獻(xiàn)計(jì)算分析······················································.086
3.5 體系貢獻(xiàn)率能效綜合評(píng)估·····················································.087
3.5.1 效能-能力聚合評(píng)估····················································.088
3.5.2 能力-效能迭代評(píng)估····················································.088
3.5.3 能力-效能定量建模····················································.089
3.5.4 綜合貢獻(xiàn)評(píng)估解算······················································.090
3.6 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估結(jié)果分析·····················································.090
3.6.1 評(píng)估結(jié)果機(jī)理分析······················································.091
3.6.2 評(píng)估結(jié)果多維展現(xiàn)······················································.091
3.6.3 評(píng)估結(jié)果決策支持······················································.092
第4 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估指標(biāo)框架··················································.094
4.1 基于體系能力的指標(biāo)框架·····················································.094
4.1.1 支持貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估的體系能力模型····································.094
4.1.2 面向全域關(guān)鍵能力的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估指標(biāo)框架··················.096
4.1.3 基于功能-能力聚合的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估指標(biāo)框架·················.098
4.1.4 基于改進(jìn)結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型的體系作戰(zhàn)能力評(píng)估指標(biāo)框架·········.099
4.2 基于體系效能的指標(biāo)框架·····················································.102
4.2.1 籃球賽高階綜合評(píng)估指標(biāo)借鑒·······································.102
4.2.2 基于目標(biāo)任務(wù)鏈路效能的指標(biāo)框架·································.104
4.2.3 基于使命任務(wù)活動(dòng)效能的指標(biāo)框架·································.105
4.2.4 基于體系對(duì)抗場(chǎng)景效能的指標(biāo)框架·································.107
4.3 基于能力生成機(jī)理的指標(biāo)框架···············································.109
4.3.1 緊扣體系能力生成機(jī)理，以適應(yīng)度、影響度和重要度為核心··.110
4.3.2 能力與效能指標(biāo)相結(jié)合，基于效能進(jìn)行能力評(píng)估與驗(yàn)證······.111
4.3.3 靜態(tài)戰(zhàn)術(shù)技術(shù)指標(biāo)與動(dòng)態(tài)使命任務(wù)指標(biāo)綜合·····················.112
4.3.4 基于整體論思想探索體系整體性指標(biāo)······························.112
4.3.5 綜合考慮成本效益等方面的因素，構(gòu)建全面的指標(biāo)框架······.114
4.3.6 根據(jù)裝備種類、問(wèn)題層次和發(fā)展階段有針對(duì)性地建立具體的
綜合性指標(biāo)框架·························································.114
第二篇 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法
第5 章 典型裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法····································.116
5.1 基于能力的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法············································.116
5.1.1 基于作戰(zhàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的能力貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法······························.116
5.1.2 基于結(jié)構(gòu)的能力貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法····································.119
5.1.3 基于RIMER 的能力貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法·······························.121
5.1.4 基于架構(gòu)與矩陣范數(shù)的多維度能力貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法············.122
5.2 基于效能的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法············································.128
5.2.1 基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法···························.128
5.2.2 基于作戰(zhàn)環(huán)的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法·································.130
5.2.3 基于深度置信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法························.133
5.2.4 基于價(jià)值中心法的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法···························.136
5.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率綜合評(píng)估方法·····················································.137
5.3.1 基于AHP 的定性-定量綜合評(píng)估方法······························.137
5.3.2 基于SEM 的能力-效能綜合評(píng)估方法······························.141
5.3.3 基于MMF-OODA 的結(jié)構(gòu)-行為綜合評(píng)估方法····················.144
5.3.4 多類型體系貢獻(xiàn)率綜合評(píng)估方法····································.145
第6 章 基于OODA 的體系貢獻(xiàn)率能效綜合評(píng)估方法·····················.149
6.1 能效綜合評(píng)估方法的原理·····················································.149
6.2 能效綜合評(píng)估方法的實(shí)施步驟···············································.150
6.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估模型框架·····················································.152
6.4 評(píng)估方法的關(guān)鍵支撐技術(shù)·····················································.153
6.4.1 基于OODA 功能回路的體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模與分析····················.153
6.4.2 基于效能仿真數(shù)據(jù)的OODA 功能回路分析·······················.159
6.4.3 基于認(rèn)知計(jì)算的能力-效能綜合評(píng)估·······························.168
6.5 案例研究··········································································.169
第7 章 面向使命任務(wù)的體系貢獻(xiàn)率能效綜合評(píng)估方法···················.175
7.1 面向使命任務(wù)的能效綜合評(píng)估方法框架···································.175
7.1.1 評(píng)估問(wèn)題的輸入與輸出················································.175
7.1.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的評(píng)估過(guò)程················································.176
7.1.3 能效綜合分析與評(píng)估框架·············································.180
7.2 基于定量HOQ 的指標(biāo)關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系分析·······································.181
7.2.1 HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)建························································.181
7.2.2 基于仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)的QFD 矩陣構(gòu)建過(guò)程································.184
7.3 基于組合賦權(quán)TOPSIS 的體系集成方案對(duì)比······························.186
7.3.1 TOPSIS····································································.186
7.3.2 使命任務(wù)需求滿足度評(píng)估·············································.186
7.3.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率計(jì)算·························································.188
7.4 案例研究··········································································.188
7.4.1 案例背景··································································.188
7.4.2 實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果及評(píng)定·························································.190
7.4.3 結(jié)果分析··································································.193
第8 章 面向規(guī)劃計(jì)劃的項(xiàng)目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法··························.194
8.1 基于能力生成周期模型的項(xiàng)目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法····················.194
8.1.1 問(wèn)題背景分析····························································.194
8.1.2 評(píng)估方法的總體框架···················································.199
8.1.3 實(shí)施步驟··································································.200
8.2 基于聯(lián)合使命任務(wù)線程的項(xiàng)目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法····················.205
8.2.1 聯(lián)合使命任務(wù)線程概述················································.205
8.2.2 實(shí)施步驟··································································.207
8.2.3 案例研究··································································.210
第三篇 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估應(yīng)用
第9 章 裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估應(yīng)用案例····································.216
9.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估方法頂層應(yīng)用流程·········································.216
9.2 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率的宏觀論證·········································.217
9.2.1 基于QFD 的巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率需求分析····················.218
9.2.2 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)需求分析中HOQ 的構(gòu)造過(guò)程·························.221
9.2.3 “國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略需求—重要作戰(zhàn)方向”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·······.229
9.2.4 “重要作戰(zhàn)方向—體系使命能力”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.230
9.2.5 “體系使命能力—作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)清單”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.232
9.2.6 “作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)清單—裝備功能需求”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.234
9.2.7 基于能力需求滿足度的體系貢獻(xiàn)率宏觀論證分析···············.236
9.3 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率的型號(hào)裝備論證···································.237
9.3.1 基于CCI-CTI 的仿真想定設(shè)置分析·································.237
9.3.2 仿真想定設(shè)定····························································.238
9.3.3 仿真應(yīng)用開(kāi)發(fā)····························································.239
9.3.4 仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)····························································.241
9.3.5 效能貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估分析···················································.243
第10 章 裝備項(xiàng)目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估應(yīng)用案例··································.246
10.1 智能化無(wú)人作戰(zhàn)力量體系建設(shè)需求········································.246
10.1.1 無(wú)人裝備建設(shè)與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)···········································.246
10.1.2 基于“馬賽克戰(zhàn)”的無(wú)人作戰(zhàn)力量規(guī)劃計(jì)劃與體系籌劃設(shè)計(jì)·······.250
10.2 “馬賽克戰(zhàn)”作戰(zhàn)體系能力生成周期模型的構(gòu)建·······················.257
10.3 項(xiàng)目與作戰(zhàn)體系能力關(guān)聯(lián)建�！ぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁ�.258
10.4 基于能力生成周期模型的項(xiàng)目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評(píng)估·························.265
參考文獻(xiàn)························································································.267